Interesting iPredict stocks, smack poll & Shearer

by Jake Quinn

iPredict has launched a stock that asks “will the anti smacking referendum be cancelled this week” which has been a quick flop, dropping swiftly to two cents (which means the traders believe it has only a few percent chance of coming true).

And lets not be shy, people in the Prime Minister’s office and throughout parliament and the gallery trade on iPredict. If anyone knew anything that indicated this could happen it would be quickly reflected in the price.

So John Key won’t be cancelling the referendum. Well, at least not this week. Realistically though, he’d be mad if he did. Can you imagine how rabid the smackers would get? Not to mention ‘middle NZ’ who would probably think of it as an arrogant abuse of power, which I guess (even though i’d love to see the bogus poll canned) it would be.

More interestingly, this stock that asks “will David Shearer replace Phil Goff as Labour leader before the 2011” could be seen as quite politically mischievous, and im interested in it’s motives. The person who designed this question is could be seen to be trying to undermine Goff’s leadership by scaremongering about a Shearer leadership bid.

For heaven’s sake, Goff got Shearer his job! They are good mates. Simple decency alone wouldn’t permit such an act that soon. The stock is (this evening) running @ $0.20, or a 20 percent chance of coming true, which is overvalued so will short-sell.

The politically motivated nature of this stock is could be seen as quite blatant. Wouldn’t a more sensible question not be about one of the more often discussed future labour leaders like David Cunliffe?

iPredict should now launch stocks that asked “will John Key resign due to stress before 2011” or “will Bill English roll John Key before 2011”. They are however, like the one above, loaded and leading questions – and in the interest of science are best avoided.

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